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Author Topic: What is our growth rate?  (Read 15157 times)
Seth King
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« on: August 08, 2013, 05:33:41 PM »

Anybody have any guesses?

Before you read what ANYBODY else writes, I want you to reply to this thread and tell me two things.

1. How many market-anarchist, anarcho-capitalist, voluntaryists, whatever, you think there are in the world right now.

and

2. What you think our rate of growth is. Do you think our numbers are doubling every year? Every 5 years? Every 5 months?

Again, give me your two estimates BEFORE you read what others write. I don't want their thoughts to taint your thoughts.
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2013, 06:11:23 PM »

Quote
1. How many market-anarchist, anarcho-capitalist, voluntaryists, whatever, you think there are in the world right now.

Not very many let's call it a million tops.

Quote
What you think our rate of growth is. Do you think our numbers are doubling every year? Every 5 years? Every 5 months?

We might be doubling every 5 years maybe, but I doubt it.
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2013, 06:58:55 PM »

One to two million with a growth of about 10% a year.
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2013, 07:18:27 PM »

1. How many market-anarchist, anarcho-capitalist, voluntaryists, whatever, you think there are in the world right now.

I would say a very small number.  I would suggest it is in the five digit region, six if we are very lucky.  If you asked for small government types, that would be much larger.  I don't think it is even part of the thought process for the vast majority of the world population/regions. 

2. What you think our rate of growth is. Do you think our numbers are doubling every year? Every 5 years? Every 5 months?

I believe we are fortunate that this isn't really a philosophy people will turn away from.  They may drop out on hope/activity, but I doubt many that got this far will change their mind.  I think the growth rate is in spurts, not a linear progression.  I suspect every election cycle as people are more exposed to politics, the more likely this is to be considered/discovered.   I would guess somewhere around eight to twelve or more years for the most recent double.  Hopefully that will accelerate as more people join in and more people are exposed to it in some form, but I wouldn't count on it.  I think it will likely reach a percentage of the population and remain there, growing and potentially shrinking nominally with population growth rates.
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2013, 07:19:17 PM »

If it means anything for the purposes of your estimates, I became one this year, and a mere five years ago (without going into detail) I believed that a revolution followed by a new police state was the answer to dealing with banksters and other globalist bigwigs who now rule us.  In that span of time I have spanned the entire spectrum from extreme authoritarian to extreme libertarian, though at no point was I ever mainstream politically, and in that sense perhaps that huge change wasn't quite as profound as it may first seem (e.g., going from rare non-mainstream position A to rare non-mainstream position B, even if B is far from A, is made easier because you're used to not being in the mainstream).
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Seth King
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2013, 07:22:58 PM »

If it means anything for the purposes of your estimates, I became one this year, and a mere five years ago (without going into detail) I believed that a revolution followed by a new police state was the answer to dealing with banksters and other globalist bigwigs who now rule us.  In that span of time I have spanned the entire spectrum from extreme authoritarian to extreme libertarian, though at no point was I ever mainstream politically, and in that sense perhaps that huge change wasn't quite as profound as it may first seem (e.g., going from rare non-mainstream position A to rare non-mainstream position B, even if B is far from A, is made easier because you're used to not being in the mainstream).

What are your estimates?

1. How many of us are there?

2. What is our growth rate?
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2013, 08:04:29 PM »

I estimate that there are five million of us in the US.  I am including individuals who may portray themselves as minarchists or constitutionalists but who are actually anarchists who want to avoid the tremendous stigma associated with being an anarchist (analagously, many nontheists hide their nontheism and many homosexuals hide their homosexuality).  On closer inspection, there are many people whom one would perceive to be for minimal government and who show definite signs of actually being anarchists (Ron Paul is one example).  I think that the liberty scene in this country has well over five million people in it, so a modest fraction of that could easily yield five million.

I think that we've recently started growing at a rate that corresponds to a doubling perhaps every ten years. 
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2013, 08:28:40 PM »

Of course you have heard of the fellow throwing starfish from the beach back into the ocean - "I saved that one".

Perhaps the question ought to be "How many few statists are you associated with?"

It's going to take a huge education/war/??? before the thinkers have a chance to much more than a few percent compared to the breeders.
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2013, 08:51:44 PM »

Nevermind what I said in my last post.  I meant that there are about five million of us in the US alone.

Worldwide, we're well over ten million.

Regarding my US estimate, polls consistently show that libertarians are ~ 20% of the population:  http://www.cato.org/blog/how-many-libertarian-voters-are-there

There are approximately 250 million adults in the US.  One fifth of that number yields 50 million libertarians.  I think that it's highly likely that ten percent of libertarians in the US (e.g., around 5 million individuals) think "I wish that the entire fucking government went away on all levels!"

If there are five million of us in a tax farm that has about 4% of the population, then there are easily well over ten million of us worldwide (even if my US estimate is way off and there are only 1 million of us in the US).
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2013, 08:54:36 PM »

Of course you have heard of the fellow throwing starfish from the beach back into the ocean - "I saved that one".

Perhaps the question ought to be "How many few statists are you associated with?"

It's going to take a huge education/war/??? before the thinkers have a chance to much more than a few percent compared to the breeders.

1. How many of us are there?

2. What is our growth rate?
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Seth King
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2013, 08:56:07 PM »

Nevermind what I said in my last post.  I meant that there are about five million of us in the US alone.

Worldwide, we're well over ten million.

Regarding my US estimate, polls consistently show that libertarians are ~ 20% of the population:  http://www.cato.org/blog/how-many-libertarian-voters-are-there

There are approximately 250 million adults in the US.  One fifth of that number yields 50 million libertarians.  I think that it's highly likely that ten percent of libertarians in the US (e.g., around 5 million individuals) think "I wish that the entire fucking government went away on all levels!"

If there are five million of us in a tax farm that has about 4% of the population, then there are easily well over ten million of us worldwide (even if my US estimate is way off and there are only 1 million of us in the US).

Start over completely. This time get rid of the minarchists in your numbers. They don't count, in my opinion.

1. How many MARKET ANARCHSITS are there in the world?

2. What is our rate of growth?
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2013, 09:05:25 PM »

Start over completely. This time get rid of the minarchists in your numbers. They don't count, in my opinion.

1. How many MARKET ANARCHSITS are there in the world?

2. What is our rate of growth?

I stand by my previous estimate for our population and growth rate.  The polls referenced in the Cato Institute article refer to people who self-identify as "libertarian" and as you pointed out to me in my Lounge thread, "libertarian" does not necessarily mean "minarchist".  Market anarchists responding to those polls, after being given the choices, would almost certainly choose "libertarian".

Bear in mind that there are a lot of people who think like us who are not nearly as active as us.  I think that those with the pessimistic estimates in this thread may have not considered that.
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2013, 09:24:59 PM »

1. How many market-anarchist, anarcho-capitalist, voluntaryists, whatever, you think there are in the world right now.

and

2. What you think our rate of growth is. Do you think our numbers are doubling every year? Every 5 years? Every 5 months?

Two answers. First, based on my experience in day-to-day life, there is 1 voluntaryist, and the growth rate is 0% ;-)

Second, based on what I see on the internet, I would guess 0.001% of the population, or slightly more than 7 million. Growth rate is probably not more than 4%/year - mostly minarchists/libertarians who read too much LRC/Mises/Molyneux and it finally hits them.
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Seth King
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2013, 09:28:32 PM »

5 million?? 7 million!?!?!

I think you guys are too generous. I hope you're right, though.

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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2013, 09:29:07 PM »

Second, based on what I see on the internet, I would guess 0.001% of the population, or slightly more than 7 million.

0.001% (e.g., one in one hundred thousand) of 7 billion is 70,000, not 7 million.  Perhaps you meant 0.1%.
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